💥 Billions Spent, No One Accountable: The Software ROI Crisis v1
After hundreds of conversations across industries and continents, one uncomfortable truth has become painfully clear: Most companies have no idea whether the software they build creates any business.
🚨 Billions Are Being Spent — With No Proof of ROI
We spend billions on software every year, yet most organizations have no idea if those investments are paying off. It’s not because we lack data or technology — it’s because no one is asking the right questions.
Over the last few years, I’ve asked hundreds of Product Managers, Product Owners, Engineers, Executives, and Coaches:
“How do you know if what you delivered achieved the outcome it was prioritized for — and was worth the cost?”
Almost no one can answer.
In most cases, the business case — if it existed — is buried, and any measurement of actual results is either missing or never reviewed. We’re pouring billions into software delivery without checking if we achieved the outcome we funded. How does that make sense?
There’s:
No benefit hypothesis — no clear statement of the expected outcome or value.
No outcome review — no structured way to assess results or incorporate learnings into quarterly reviews with leadership.
No clear accountability — no single owner ensuring the investment delivered on its promise.
Across all levels — from the C-suite to product teams — no one is truly owning outcomes, and too often, no one even seems to care.
And yet:
Budgets get approved.
Roadmaps get filled.
People get promoted.
Even when the feature is delivered late… never used… or never even turned on.
This isn’t an edge case. It’s the norm. And it’s not a lack of technology, knowledge, or tooling.
It’s a system working exactly as designed — where capital is spent to stay busy, with no obligation to prove results.
🧠 Why This Happens — and Why It Persists
Let’s walk the chain of failure:
Boards aren’t asking whether software investments deliver ROI.
If the stock price holds, that’s considered enough.
CEOs aren’t held accountable to business outcomes from tech spend.
If capital gets deployed and the business grows somehow, no one digs deeper.
No one downstream is incentivized to care.
If the top doesn’t ask, why would anyone challenge the system?
Product roles are diluted and misused.
PMs and POs are often “ticket managers” — not outcome owners.
Everyone optimizes for activity.
Flow metrics show velocity — but no one asks, “Are we flowing the right work?”
Delayed delivery hides waste.
Work delivered late often arrives after the need is gone — and no one notices.
No one is required to circle back.
No feature-level check. No feedback loop. No learning. Just ship and move on.
And even if someone wanted to be accountable?
There’s no operating model that enforces it.
There’s no cadence that requires it.
There’s no management system that expects it.
🛑 This Is Not a Moral Failure — It’s Capitalism Functioning As Designed
It’s tempting to say, “We should care more.”
But let’s be honest: enterprises are not charities. If waste still leads to profits, why stop?
If boards are satisfied, if Wall Street rewards growth narratives, and if teams stay occupied — then asking whether a feature delivered business value becomes optional.
This is not about good or bad people.
It’s about incentives, systems, and what is — and isn’t — measured.
Until capital efficiency, ROI, and accountability to outcomes become leadership imperatives, no amount of tooling, agile training, or team coaching will fix this.
📈 What Enterprises Could Gain From Fixing It
Let’s imagine a world where:
Every feature has a clear business hypothesis.
Outcomes are reviewed in Quarterly Reviews just like financials.
Flow metrics track strategic work, not just story churn.
PMs and POs own business impact, not just delivery.
Backlogs are prioritized based on evidence, not politics.
Senior leaders can answer, “What did we get for the money?”
The benefits?
Faster strategic decisions.
Smarter funding allocation.
Higher employee engagement from seeing impact.
Stronger market position from delivering what actually matters.
And none of this requires “transformation.” It just requires incentivizing the right questions at the right level.
🔧 What You Can Do — Without Waiting for a Transformation
This is not an unsolved mystery. These practices are well-documented and freely available.
If you’re serious about improvement, here’s what already exists:
✅ 1. Add a Benefit Hypothesis - With Real Financial Logic
Product Managers and Product Owners must ensure every feature or epic answers: What business outcome or financial impact do we expect? How will we know if it worked?
For those who struggle with benefit hypothesis, Andrew Long points out that benefit ≠ value ≠ enhanced profitability. To fix this:
Define and validate the two hypotheses in the chain: Work Package/System Change → Behavior Change and Behavior Change → Business Impact.
Example: IF we send marketing emails that drive prospects to our signup page, THEN X% will visit and Y% will sign up (Work → Behavior).
IF Y% sign up, THEN revenue will increase by $Z (Behavior → Impact).
Use this chain to model how delivering user value will drive business-relevant financials (revenue, expense, risk, or optionality). Use Monte Carlo simulations if needed and refine with real data over time.
✅ 2. Review Outcomes in Quarterly Reviews
Executives and Senior Leaders should review outcomes alongside financial performance. These reviews are about return on capital — did the money achieve the results we funded?
✅ 3. Prioritize by Value, Not Loud Voices
Portfolio Managers and Product Leaders should use evidence (customer need, usage data, OKRs) and potential ROI to decide what gets built. In 2025 it remains HIPPO and whoever yells the loudest.
✅ 4. Use Flow Metrics — On the Right Work
Don’t just measure throughput. Focus on high-value, strategically aligned items.
Technology and Delivery Leaders should track flow metrics for strategic, high-value initiatives to ensure money is not just being spent, but spent wisely.
✅ 5. Assign Real Accountability
PMs/POs: accountable for the outcome, not just delivery.
Executives: accountable for asking “Did this deliver financial and strategic results?”
🧾 Checklist: Is Your Org Serious About ROI?
Use this to assess where your organization really stands:
Do all major initiatives have a clear benefit hypothesis linked to financial impact?
Are outcomes reviewed quarterly alongside financials?
Are features prioritized based on measurable value, not politics?
Are flow metrics tied to strategic work?
Does leadership actively validate ROI post-delivery?
If you can’t check most of these, you’re not alone. But that’s the point.
📚 Further Reading & Real-World Examples
The search for organizations and leaders offering credible, independently documented examples of what happens when delivery is tied to outcomes continues. Here are a few. Do you have others?
✅ Companies
🔹 ING (Netherlands)
Organized teams around customer outcomes, not output.
🔗 McKinsey: ING’s Agile at Scale
🔹 Equinor (Norway)
Public examples in OKR and product management communities on aligning tech to strategy.
🔹 BMW
Known for applying Lean thinking and VSM practices across software teams.
🎯 Thought Leaders
Melissa Perri – Escaping the Build Trap
🔗 melissaperri.com
Mik Kersten – Project to Product
🔗 projecttoproduct.org
John Cutler – Product Thinker & Writer
🔗 cutlefish.substack.com
💬 Know a Better Way — and Can Show It?
If your organization — or one you know — is:
Delivering measurable business outcomes
Using better practices or metrics
Holding teams accountable in a way that’s scalable and real
Please share what’s working.
Not buzzwords.
Not theory.
Proof.
What’s being measured? What improved? What can others learn from it?
The world doesn’t need another framework, a recitation of agile or lean theory or more platitudes.
It needs examples of what actually works.
Let me know your thoughts — I’m continually learning and refining my perspective as these issues run rampant across countries and industries, and I still can’t make sense of it. Millions, even billions, are wasted every year. Is this complacency in key roles, or simply capitalism working as designed?”